USD/JPY 1 December 2014

The Asian market has awaken!

Today, I look at the USD/JPY pair to try to make a trade.

I can't seem to find any good entry points for the rest of the pairs yet. So I guess I'll leave those to the later part of the day.

As we can see, there seems to be a strong resistance line at the 119.0 mark of the pair. A strong sell every time this price is hit. In the forex world, small retail traders like myself don't move the market prices much or even at all. The big institutions or even the government are the movers of the prices. And part of my trading style is to ride on the waves of these moves.

Based on the above, I placed a limit sell near 119.0 level believing that the point will be tested again and based on the fundamentals currently, there exist no potential news release that would push prices past this resistance point. If I'm wrong, I'll limit my loss to 10 pips while looking to take profit at 20 pips.

When you trade, your risk reward ratio should preferably be 2:1. Of course this is still subjective on your risk tolerance, I would say that 2:1 is a acceptable ratio to look at.

This is my live trade. I'm not too sure whether the price will hit eventually, but lets wait and see.

Remember! Always to stick to your plan and not to chase after the price even if the price starts moving away from your price target.

Latest update 16:00:

Couldn't get into a position :(
A 30 pips move was made!
I got into a separate position on the ZAR/JPY trade thou which I'll update on my next post.
Am currently still having limit sell on the USD/JPY trade. However, it seems that its quite far from our target.

Latest update 01:00:

Those of you who got into the USD/JPY congrats! A 120 pips move was made.
I unfortunately threw all my funds into my ZAR/JPY trade and missed the USD/JPY trade. However, both pairs move correspondingly and will give off seemly returns.

OPEC Decision USD/CAD 28 November 2014

OPEC Decision USD/CAD

The recent OPEC decision or "no decision" has plunged commodities currency loonie or CAD from all its gains accumulated for the last 2 weeks against the greenback USD.

Remember in my first post that I'm a minor fundamental analyst too? The OPEC's decision has a high impact on commodities currency. If you solely traded on technical analysis, we might have been given the false signal that the CAD will continue on a bear streak with its strong CPI and GDP figures.

A vast amount of revenue that Canada receives comes from its oil export towards the United States standing about 85% of all oil extracted in Canada. With the recent technology advancement of using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, oil can be extracted at a increased rate so much so that the supply of oil has surpassed the demand in oil. A surplus results in lowered price as aggregate supply exceeds aggregate demand.

With a lower oil price, Canada's overall revenue and economy will be hurt by the oil price eventually. Despite the recent good reports, the scale of the impact on Canada cannot be measured directly yet taking into consideration that most big companies that are consumers of vast amount of oil hedge their positions against potential oil price movements. With the price falling to $68 per barrel, these companies will demand a hedge position contract near $68 per barrel. And the full scale impact on the GDP of Canada can only be seen after the current contracts expires if the OPEC does not work together towards a new resolution.

By the outlook of the biggest oil nations in the world, a possible resolution looks unlikely to happen in the near few weeks. Seems like forming a committee of the biggest oil players doesn't equates to "we will work together" but rather "to each his own and his own agenda". A reversal of oil prices will likely only occur when companies that rely on high production cost begin to fold as cost of production exceeds the cost of profit. This will likely not happen so soon too as these companies will probably cry out to the government for help before ultimately folding. Another possible way could be for nations that are willing to work together to boycott uncooperative major players exportation by establishing import bans. This however causes too much political tension.

My take is that oil price will remain bearish for a extended period of time and traders in USD/CAD pair need to be careful when going short.

I did however managed to trade the USD/CAD and entered a long position at 1.1340. Based on the below chart, we see that the USD/CAD has formed a new support line along 1.1340 for a extended period of time with a indecisive pattern, with such a strong fundamental issue, the possibility of a uptrend outweighed the risk of a downtrend and hence a long position is favorable with a stop loss if price falls below the resistance line.

I however closed the trade at 1.377 with a profit of 30 pips. Why so early? I stick to my plans on the R/S lines drawn by me and conservatively take profit. With the USD/CAD extending such a long run, the possibility of a pullback is much higher and hence it exceeds my risk tolerance. Remember always that the key is to STICK to your plan.

EUR/USD trade 28th November 2014

EUR/USD Trade:

My hours are in Singapore Time as such the timing might differ but the graph would be the same based on your individual time zone.

Based on the EUR/USD chart on the 30mins interval, we can clearly see that there has been a strong resistance and support at the 1.2444 level. This gives us the opportunity to trade on this level.

As there are no upcoming news that could majorly impact the pricing, we are guessing that prices will bounce between these levels.

Now I'll show you what I trade on.

Based on the R&S line drawn and as we further zoomed into the charts, we see that prices has bounced off  1.2429 at the 16:00 hr. The thin bar shown indicates that there has been a vast amount of investors and supporters who felt that 1.2429 is a comfortable price to go long on the EUR/USD or sellers taking profit at that level and prices are unlikely to go further lower. We subsequently saw a huge rise peaking at near 1.2490 before it goes down towards the original level.

I did not trade on the 16:00 hr but I looked towards the 02:00 hr where the price went back towards that resistance level.

I placed a long trade at the 1.2431 level where the price has been tested previously and waited.

There are times where my trades don't get filled because of the prices I'm willing to enter the trade. Even thou the technical analysis shows that prices will most likely bounce, I'll not enter the trade at any other price except the price I set. If price eventually bounces at 1.2435, I'll choose to let it go then chase after the price and position as I comply to my rule on sticking to my plan regardless on how market moves.

Remember always that a wise man once said " The opportunities are unlimited but our capital are finite." Don't let your emotions run and just STICK to your plan.

Lucky for me, my order was filled at 1.2431. As this trade was made on Friday, I'll need to close the trade before the market closes. To me as a day trader, weekends are dangerous as we lose control over our trades and prices can go up or down drastically when the market reopens based on news released on weekends, so AVOID holding trades through weekend as far as possible.

I took profit at 1.2443 with a profit of around 10 pips and went to sleep.

I'm not a very high frequency trader and I place big sums on each trade and hence I tend to choose my trades conservatively and 10 pips is good money for myself.

That's all for the day, if you have any queries, drop your comments below and I'll try my best to reply you.

Thy Journey Begins!!

Hi Everyone!

This is my first blog ever and I'm a little excited yet at the same time a little confused on what to write and what to share. Basically, after 2 years of trading Forex, I've decided to start a mini diary to jot down all my mistakes and successes for myself and for those who are learning the trade too.

As a wise man once said that to learn from someone's experience can be much less time consuming than going through the experience yourself.

Following are the attributes to how I trade before anyone starts criticizing me on how I place my trades and all the flamings.

My Trading Style 1,2,3:

1) I basically major my trades in technical analysis and minor in fundamentals.

2) I'm a day trader with 100:1 leverage and I seldom bring my trades overnight.

3) I rely alot on support and resistance analysis.


I hope the reads would eventually be helpful for whoever is reading it and may the odds be in your favor.

And 1 last thing I want to emphasize! That everyone is a unique trader and you got to find the unique you through trial and error and what type of strategy suits you. Some people might hate my style but what works for you works best for you.

You don't become rich the next waking day by trading Forex but wealth is accumulated when you learn to STICK to your own strategy.